Despite the disappointments of the last two seasons, the Cubs are hopeful to contend in 2025. The trade for Kyle Tucker, improved bullpen, and third base position battle have garnered headlines during the offseason. However, additional factors that could be crucial for success in the 2025 season have been overlooked. The potential impact of these improvements on the Cubs’ success is a reason for hope and optimism.

Dansby Swanson Full Season Batting

Two-time reigning Gold Glove winner Dansby Swanson provides tremendous defensive value. However, defensive specialists don’t sign $177 million contracts. Swanson finished 2024 with a 98 OPS+ and 99 wRC+. By both metrics, he was a tick below average offensively. However, due to his defense, he surpassed 4.0 in both bWAR and fWAR.

The full-year statistics do not tell the complete story of Swanson’s offensive season. He struggled mightily at the plate in the first half of 2024, and his numbers were down. Swanson has never been a middle-of-the-order bat. However, his first-half split OPS+ of 79 was well below his total OPS+ of 106 posted between 2020 and 2023. His struggles contributed to the Cubs’ skid in May and June, a period where they had a .382-win percentage, significantly impacting their overall season performance.       

The second half was a different story. Swanson got hot after the All-Star Break, posting statistics that surpassed his career averages. The Cubs climbed back into the wild card race with a .596-win percentage in August and September, but it was too late for their playoff hopes.

Although he is not one of the top offensive producers, Swanson is an integral part of the Cubs lineup. Swanson can make a significant impact if he can build on his success from the second half of last season or, at minimum, produce to his career averages.

Carson Kelly Acquisition

The Cubs catchers’ offensive struggles during the first half of 2024 were well documented. However, Miguel Amaya’s swing adjustments and the production from Christian Bethancourt turned the situation around in the second half. The Cubs’ catching defense was also a concern. It was among the worst in the league analytically. Miguel Amaya, Yan Gomes, and Christian Bethancourt rated poorly in pitch framing (all had below -4 catcher framing runs in 2024). Bethancourt rated highly in throwing out runners, but the other two performed poorly in this metric. The only defensive area Amaya excelled in was blocking, where he ranked second in catcher blocking runs.

Carson Kelly’s catching abilities are a welcome addition to the 2025 Cubs. His rankings among the top twenty catchers in blocking, throwing, and framing metrics, as well as his tenth place in fielding run value in 2024, are a testament to his defensive prowess. Despite his 96 OPS+ indicating negative offensive performance, achieving near league-average offensive production from a backup catcher would be a significant improvement. Amaya will likely be the regular starting catcher. However, having an elite defensive backup catcher who can contribute offensively will be a promising development that should lead to more wins.