The Cubs were swept in the two-game Tokyo series by the Dodgers, losing the second game by a score of 6-3. It’s a rough way to start the season. However, there is no shame in losing to a team of this quality. I’ve listed a few of my takeaways from the game today below:

• Justin Steele
  • Justin Steele’s performance in his 2025 debut did not meet his or the team’s expectations. His struggle, resulting in five earned runs in four innings, significantly affected the Cubs’ chances of a series split with the Dodgers. Steele breezed through the first inning, attacking the top of the Dodgers lineup. He got three outs in 8 pitches, throwing only one ball. The Dodgers scored two runs in the second inning. Will Smith led off the inning with a 5-pitch walk, with Steele struggling to hit his spot, targeting the top of the zone with his fastball. Max Muncy doubled on a slider that Steele hung. From there, the runs scored on a passed ball and sacrifice fly. The following two innings were feast or famine from Steele. On the positive side, he amassed four strikeouts in two innings, showing his ability to dominate when he’s at his best. However, he also got rocked for hard contact, giving up three runs on two home runs (Tommy Edman and Kiké Hernandez) and a hard-hit double (Will Smith).
  • The Dodgers excel offensively in their preparation, approach, and adjustments. Their right-handed hitters were prepared for Steele to attack inside and up in the zone with his four-seam fastball. Below is the heat map of Steele’s four-seam fastball location to right-handed batters today, along with the pitch sequences of both home runs and Will Smith’s double. All three hits came in the hot spot at the top-middle of the zone or middle in.

Steele must combat any predictable trends in his fastball location to right-handed batters. He does not require a complete change in approach and location of what he does most effectively. One way to do this could be throwing enough fastballs targeted down and away early in counts to remind hitters he has that pitch in his bag and keep them honest.

• Lineup
  • The bottom of the lineup has been a beacon of hope in the Tokyo series. Production from the seventh through ninth spot, an area where the team struggled in the first half of 2024, has shown signs of promise. John Berti’s three-hit day, stolen base from the nine-spot, and Carson Kelly’s single and walk from the eight-spot are encouraging signs. Kelly’s performance and Miguel Amaya’s driving in the lone run in the first game show signs of offensive promise from Cubs catchers. The catcher position was essentially a free out in the lineup for the first half of 2024, but now there’s hope for improved performance from the jump in 2025.Dansby Swanson continues to look good in the box. He walked and doubled in today’s game. I mentioned yesterday that Swanson is at his best when his approach is to stay through the middle of the field. The caveat to this is hanging offspeed pitches on the inner half. The middle-focused approach allows him to stay on these pitches longer and hammer them to the pull side instead of pulling off and either rolling over them, fouling them off, or completely missing them. This was the case with his fifth-inning RBI double, where he pulled a hanging slider to the left field wall with an exit velocity of 106.4 mph. It’s a two-game sample, but Swanson appears locked in and could be poised to perform offensively above his career averages.
  • The Cubs struck out twelve times today, with ten of the twelve coming from four spots in the order. Does facing a rookie top prospect for the first time with limited data impact strikeouts? Probably. Does the Dodgers ‘ Avengers-level unit of arms in their bullpen make hitting nearly impossible? Of course. However, eight of those strikeouts come from either a player that the team is counting on to live up to his productive track record (Suzuki) or two second-year talents that the Cubs want to take the next step forward instead of falling into a sophomore setback (PCA and Busch). We’ll give Shaw a pass in his second career game after a limited spring training. This is a one-game sample, but keep an eye on how these players see the ball as the Cubs start their season stateside. One more thing. This serves as a friendly reminder that Kyle Tucker is one of the best hitters in baseball. His slow spring training has gotten media notoriety and drawn interest from fans wondering if the front office might have made a mistake. In the ninth inning, Tucker doubled on a line drive driven off the left field wall with an exit velocity of 104.0 mph for his first hit as a Cub. He did this left-on-left more impressively against one of last year’s best left-hand relievers, Alex Vesia. Hopefully, this is a jumping-off point for a hot start in cubby blue.
• Bullpen
  • The depth of quality arms the front office built this offseason is another highlight from this series. Cubs relievers gave up one run on two hits over five innings today. The lone run came on a questionable Shohei Ohtani home run where a fan appeared to interfere with the ball in play, attempting to cash in on catching Japan’s favorite son’s only MLB home run hit in his own country. Cubs relievers were able to pitch around six walks. Pearson and Thielbar gave up no free passes in the fifth and sixth, respectively. Merryweather pitched around two walks in the seventh inning, Hodge walked one in the eighth, and Ryan Pressly wiggled through 3 walks in the ninth to post a zero. It’s a good sign that the pitchers were able to pitch out of situations with runners on base. However, decreasing walks in leverage situations will make walking the tightrope easier throughout the season. Justin Turner pinch-hit in Michael Busch’s spot in the ninth inning of both games. This was an issue in 2024 when Craig Counsell opted to pinch-hit Patrick Wisdom for Busch in almost every late-game situation with a left-handed reliever. Busch (103 wRC+ vs. LHP) fared much better against left-handed pitching than Wisdom (76 wRC+ vs. LHP) in 2024. This tactic led to disappointment past the tactical disadvantage. It took away opportunities for Busch to develop his hitting against left-handed pitching on his way to becoming a complete hitter. Justin Turner had a 119 wRC+ against left-handers last year. This is a tactical upgrade over using Wisdom to pinch-hit for Busch. However, there could be opportunities to utilize Turner in this role, such as pinch-hitting for other spots in the lineup. Switch-hitting Ian Happ and left-handed hitting Kyle Tucker are probably safe from pinch-hitting matchup substitutions. However, Pete Crow-Armstrong may not be able to prove he can hit lefties. Matt Shaw could struggle as many rookies do, or Counsell may want to utilize a proven veteran in a high-leverage situation. Further, days may require Vidal Brujan or Gage Workman to enter the starting lineup. These situations could prove more beneficial for pinch-hitting Turner rather than automatically opting to do so for Busch in late-game situations.
  • Outside of Ben Brown, whose position in the Cubs bullpen versus pitching in triple-A is still up in the air, Cubs relievers gave up two runs on five hits over seven and a third innings during a series against one of the deepest lineups in baseball (even without Mookie Betts or Freddie Freeman). This is a promising sign that the team will have reliable relievers up and down the roster. This should help keep the group fresher and allow the team to absorb the risk of injuries throughout the season.
• Defense
  • The Cubs played a much cleaner game defensively on Wednesday with zero errors. The only blip on the radar was a bases-loaded passed ball by the usually reliable Carson Kelly that led to a run. This is likely an instance of a new catcher working with new pitchers with limited spring training to prepare. Matt Shaw displayed his defensive ability in game two with a highlight diving play on a ground ball to his left (thank you for the pick, Michael Busch!). We haven’t seen him challenged towards the line or on slow roller do-or-die type plays. However, his range to his glove side has passed the eye test through two games.
  • John Berti added a nice sliding stop and throw to first to his impressive day at the plate.